Yankees 2017 Season Preview
On Sunday, the Yankees will play their first regular season baseball game in six months to the date. It’s been a long wait, but we’re finally ready for meaningful Yankee baseball. With the new season, comes a season preview none of you have been waiting for. In this preview, I’ll break down the general storylines for the 2017 Yankees, then preview the offense and pitching, and conclude with predictions that will surely be 100% correct. Let’s do it.
More than any season I can remember, the Yankees come into this year as underdogs. The 27-time World Series Champions with a seemingly unlimited payroll, playing in the biggest city in America, are understandably not often viewed as the scrappy underdogs. This Yankee team, however, is different, and that’s a good thing for baseball, Yankee fans, and most importantly, the franchise itself.
For years, the Bronx Bombers were one of the stuffiest franchises in the league. Their roster was old and filled with veteran stars on huge contracts. With few exceptions, the Yankees were never really viewed as a “fun” team, even to their own fans. Now, winning does trump “fun” and they often go hand-in-hand. The 2009 team was a great example of both. However, winning championships is king in the Bronx, and the Yankees have won just once over the past 16 seasons. If the Yankees weren’t going to win every year, fans wanted to at least see signs of progress and have reassurance that the future was brighter. That was certainly not the case.
The Pinstripes consistently had one of the worst farm systems in baseball for a decade. Almost all big prospects they did have either fizzled out or got moved (Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, etc.). They masked this by doling out one big contract after another, which put them in the current predicament they’re about to dig themselves out of. A few years ago though, the Yankees realized a change was needed. This is a piece I wrote in January 2016 outlining that philosophical change, if you care to take a look.
So while I did see what the Yankees were doing, I had no idea how drastic the rebuild would become just months later. By wising up and trading Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Carlos Beltran, and Brian McCann, the Yankees have gotten younger, and restocked their farm system in a major way. Between the prospects the Yankees refused to part with over the past few seasons (Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Luis Severino, Jorge Mateo, James Kaprielian) and the ones they’ve acquired (Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Billy McKinney, Albert Abreu, Dillon Tate), they’ve given themselves a consensus top-three farm system in baseball, with many saying it’s the best.
In addition to probably the best and deepest farm system in the game, the team is a year away from ridding themselves of all burdensome contracts, with the exception of Jacoby Ellsbury. With a historic free agent class looming after the 2018 season, it’s no wonder why the Yankees are widely believed to be a budding dynasty.
The 2017 team may not be there yet, but they’re young and they’re fun to watch, especially when compared to say, the 2013 team. Gary Sanchez (C), Greg Bird (1B), and Aaron Judge (RF) will all be in the Opening Day lineup. In 2013, their respective positions in the Opening Day lineup were filled by Francisco Cervelli, Kevin Youkilis, and Ichiro Suzuki. That lineup also featured Ben Francisco, Vernon Wells, and Jayson Nix. I wish I was making that up.
This team may not win more than the 2013 squad (85 wins), but they’ll be a lot more interesting to watch. In addition to Sanchez, Bird, and Judge, Didi Gregorius, Dellin Betances, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, and Bryan Mitchell will all likely play significant roles in the Bronx. All of them are in their twenties, and only Gregorius and Pineda have spent (albeit limited) time with another big league club. Let’s also not forget that Frazier, Torres, Kaprielian, Tyler Wade, Chance Adams, and others will all be making major league pushes.
So the Yankees may not enter this season as a World Series favorite, and few are picking them for the playoffs, but that’s just fine. They’re fun, they have a bright future, and they may actually be pretty good. The last time a Yankee team fit that description was the early 1990s, and we all know what followed.
Offensive Outlook
The main reason I think the Yankees may exceed expectations this season is because of their underrated offense. Last season, the Yankees were a bottom ten offense by wOBA, wRC+ and fWAR, but there’s reason to believe they can move up to the top ten in some of those categories this year. It’s likely that they get better production this season out of almost every position.
At catcher, Gary Sanchez won’t hit 70 home runs….. He’ll hit 90. Kidding of course (I think?), and while fans should temper expectations a bit, there’s still reason to be excited. We’ll get a chance to see him in his first full season. Hitting .280-.300 with 25-35 home runs and around 100 RBIs is a reasonable expectation that everyone would sign up for. Austin Romine is a serviceable backup.
As for first, Greg Bird has looked like Don Mattingly in spring training. In 49 at bats, he’s slashing .429/.541/1.041 with 7 homers and 13 runs batted in. I’d say those are like my Little League numbers, but I stunk in Little League. Now, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb by saying he won’t continue that torrid pace in the regular season, but he’s extremely talented and has a chance to put up Robinson Cano-like numbers. Whatever he does, it should be an improvement over Mark Teixeira’s poor 2016 campaign.
Starlin Castro remains at second and should be expected to put up similar numbers to last season, with more room for improvement than decline.
Didi Gregorius exceeded all expectations at short last season, hitting .276 with 20 dingers. He’ll miss the start of the season with a shoulder injury, which is really bad news for the Yanks, but we should see continued improvement out of Sir Didi when he does return. In the meantime, Ronald Torreyes and Pete Kozma will be holding down short, which is a huge offensive downgrade no matter how you slice it. I would’ve liked to see Tyler Wade, who has drawn comparisons to Ben Zobrist, get the job, but in some breaking news, I do not make decisions for the New York Yankees
As for Chase Headley….well, he’s Chase Headley. We pretty much know what we’re getting with him, and it’s not great. That being said, it’s hard for him to have a worse start to this season than 2016.
The outfield is mostly the same as last season with Brett Gardner remaining in left after trade rumors and Jacoby Ellsbury still in center. Both are coming off similarly disappointing years; each hit in the .260s with single digit home runs and neither stole more than 20 bags. It’s becoming apparent that one will be dropped to the bottom of the order, which is definitely a good thing. The two are too much alike and need to be split up. Last season, the one and two spots in the Yankee lineup (mostly Gardner and Ellsbury) combined for a .337 OBP. That has to be improved. It’s a simple and effective way to improve the offense.
As for right field, Judgement Day has arrived. The 6’7” righty will be the Opening Day right fielder, and it’s his job to lose. After hitting a mammoth home run in his first at bat last season, he struggled mightily. Judge hit just .179 and whiffed in 42 of his 95 plate appearances. Spring training has been a different story. He’s shortened his swing, and it’s paying off. He’s batting .344 and has gone deep three times. If he can hit even .250 this season, the Yankees will take that because 30 homers should come with it. Aaron Hicks will also get some at bats, especially against lefties when he spells Gardner/Ellsbury. He was a massive disappointment last season, but the Yankees still believe in his athleticism and potential.
The team is also getting an upgrade at DH. As painful as it is to type, Alex Rodriguez is gone. I’ve sort of been in denial since August, but I guess I have to finally accept it. And as much as I hate to say it, Matt Holliday will be an upgrade. It’s no secret A-Rod struggled last season, and the position was kind of a revolving door. Holliday brings stability to this season; I broke down why I like the signing back in December. He’s a good fit for Yankee stadium and should bounce back after a subpar 2016, especially since he won’t have to play the field in the AL.
Pitching Preview
The fate of this Yankees season comes down to the starting pitching. The offense is solid. The bullpen, which I’ll get to, will be fine. The rotation is elephant in the room. Masahiro Tanaka is an ace and will continue to be if he’s healthy. There’s no concern with him outside of his UCL, but we can’t be worried about that 24/7. CC Sabathia will be the #2 starter, which isn’t great. Over the past four seasons, 604 innings, his ERA is 4.54. That’s really not great. The good news is he’s learning to work with what he has, becoming more of a prototypical crafty, veteran lefty. Last year, he pitched to a 3.91 ERA, but struggled with some rough patches; his combined July and August ERA was 5.61. He’s more of 3/4 starter at this point of his career, but the Yankees will have to hope he can just eat innings, and do so somewhat effectively.
Then there’s Michael Pineda, who could be the most important Yankee this season. Not important in terms of “can’t lose them,” but moreso that I think his performance (good or bad) will have a huge impact on the team’s season. If he pitches like he has the past two years, 4.60 combined ERA and wild inconsistency, the Yankees have almost no chance at the playoffs. The rotation is shaky enough and having one of your top dogs perform so poorly only hurts that (obviously). However, he remains so intriguing because of his potential. He has the pitch arsenal to succeed. He’s proved it in the past (2011 and 2014), and his peripherals all suggest a breakout is imminent. His FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB/9, and other boring, advanced stats all say he should be a much better pitcher. The problem is that he just isn’t. He could put it together in a contract year, but if not, it’s trouble for the Yanks.
The backend of the rotation is a bit messy. Luis Severino will be the #4 to start the year. The righty was considered a top pitching prospect very recently, but he hasn’t put it together in the bigs. He allowed 45 runs in 47.1 innings as a starter last season. That is bad, and in fact, not good. The potential is still there though, so he deserves the spot. The fifth spot will go to either Jordan Montgomery or Chad Green when they need one on April 16th. Both had strong springs, and while Green has the major league experience, it’s Montgomery who’s really stood out. The tall lefty had a 2.55 ERA in Trenton last season, and then allowed just four runs across six starts in Scranton. He’s used his good stuff and deceptive delivery to succeed this spring too. In 19.2 innings, he has 17 strikeouts and a 3.20 ERA. The Yankees could be in good hands either way. Luis Cessa, who I’m still personally high on despite a poor spring, and Bryan Mitchell, who will start the season in the bullpen, are other options for the rotation. I actually think the backend of the rotation will end up being serviceable given all their surprisingly decent options. The middle of the rotation (Pineda and Sabathia) worries me more.
As for the bullpen, it won’t be as dominant as it was last season on the backend, but it’s still a definite strength. Betances, Miller, and Chapman were awesome to watch as “No Runs DMC” but Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Tyler Clippard still make up a solid backend trio. I’ve rebranded them as “Some runs but still not a lot DCC.” Some people will say it’s less catchy. Don’t listen to them.
One good thing is that the bullpen is deeper this season. Adam Warren, a very serviceable reliever, will be on board for a full season. Lefty Tommy Layne had a surprisingly solid stint in pinstripes last season, and Bryan Mitchell has the stuff to be a dominant reliever. Chasen Shreve and Jonathan Holder round out the bunch. I’d also like to see flame-throwing righty Ben Heller at some point. He can hit 100 MPH with the fastball and has a plus slider. Overall, the bullpen should be one of the best in baseball and can help make up for a weak rotation.
Season Prediction
So that was a whole lot of words. Thanks for reading. If you just skimmed to the bottom, that’s cool too. My official prediction for this season is an 86-76 record, good enough for second place in the AL East and the second wild card spot. Is some of that possible pinstripe bias? Absolutely, but that’s not all of it. This is a solid offense that should get better as the season goes on when young guys better, and new ones come up. The rotation won’t be great, but it can be serviceable if Tanaka stays healthy, and the bullpen is more than fine. Also, I think the AL East and AL as a whole is pretty weak. The Red Sox are almost a lock to win the East, but the rest of the division is nothing speical. Baltimore overachieved last season and they really have no pitching. Toronto lost Edwin Encarnacion, and I just have a gut feeling they’re due for a down season. The Rays don’t have much talent. It’s possible the Yankees have the second best team in the division. I think they can snag the second wild card too with how bleak the rest of the AL looks. Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Texas, and Seattle seem like the other AL contenders.
My World Series pick is the Dodgers over the Indians. To hear our baseball preview show with myself and our other Yankees and Mets beat reporters, tune in for One on One tomorrow at 1 PM on 90.7 FM and WFUVsports.org.
