Mamdani Far Ahead in NYC Independent Poll

Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani is leading New York City’s mayoral race by a wide margin, according to a new independent poll conducted by Zenith Research and Public Progress Solutions, and he appears to be expanding his support beyond primary voters.

The poll, conducted between July 16 and 24 among 1,453 registered voters, shows Mamdani with 50% support in a five-way general election. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo trails at 22%, followed by Republican Curtis Sliwa at 13%, Mayor Eric Adams at 7%, and independent candidate Jim Walden at 1%. Six percent of voters remain undecided.

“Mamdani has in all likelihood expanded the base of his support beyond the people who voted for him in the primary,” said Amit Singh Bagga, founder of Public Progress Solutions. He noted that Mamdani “also leads in every single borough except for Staten Island, which is led by Curtis Sliwa.”

According to Bagga, “Mamdani now leads among all of the larger race groups, White, Black, Latino, Asian, anywhere from 19 to 52 points. He's also ahead, among New Yorkers from all income brackets.” 

The poll found that Mamdani was ahead across racial and income groups, including with Jewish voters. Despite his vocal criticism of Israel, Mamdani held a 17-point lead over Cuomo among Jewish respondents. “ That's not a small lead, that's not a middle-sized lead. That's a pretty commanding lead,” said Bagga on this result.

Bagga also emphasized the striking levels of opposition to Mamdani’s rivals: “The number of people who say they would not consider voting for Mamdani is 32%. For Cuomo, it’s 60%. For Adams, it’s 68%. For Sliwa, it’s 59%. So what that tells us is that Zohran is the only candidate in the race that has room to grow.”

According to Adam Carlson, founder of Zenith Research, the results point to a shift in the city’s political landscape. “The real fault lines of this race are generational and educational,” he said. Mamdani received 82% support among voters aged 18 to 34, and led among those who’ve received higher education, earning 49% among voters with “some college” education and 60% among those with a four-year degree or more. Carlson added that Mamdani “ran a very joy-filled and positivity-filled campaign, and that means a lot to younger voters right now.”

Bagga also noted a lack of language accessibility in most New York City polling, describing how he and Carlson “had to fight tooth and nail with a number of our vendors” to offer their survey in four languages: English, Spanish, simplified Chinese, and Bangla. The pushback, he said, came largely because “they had never been asked before.”

A portion of this interview aired on the What’s What podcast from WFUV News.